Defaulting on its debts also would present more problems for Venezuela’s biggest industry.
The country’s economy is almost completely at the mercy of the oil industry — its economic and social tailspin nothwithstanding, Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves on earth. As of last year, they stood at the equivalent of 300 billion barrels — approximately 33 billion more than Saudi Arabia — according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But its oil production has cratered to its lowest levels in about 20 years since a crash in prices that started in late 2014.
US crude since September 30, 2014 until now
Oil minister Nelson Martinez said Thursday that Venezuela is seeking alternatives to pay key lenders, namely China and Russia.
“We are looking forward to solving the issue of the debt,” Martinez said at a meeting OPEC, of which Venezuela is a member. “We are looking at all options, some financial support through bonds, and so on.”
But Petroleos de Venezuela, the state-run oil company better known as PDVSA, could default on its debt either this fall — when it’s scheduled to pay more than $3 billion in debt — or “in the coming years,” said Reggie Thompson, Latin America analyst at Stratfor.
“It’s risky for PDVSA because, even though they made a similar payment earlier this year, their cash flow problems keep worsening by the day,” Thompson said. “They also have other headwinds, like mechanical failures.”
Thompson added that Venezuela’s unwillingness to default also stems from a desire to preserve its own assets.
“They’d have to deal with lengthy lawsuits against bondholders that could end with [the government] having some assets seized.”
Lastly, Venezuela won’t default on its debt because “many high-ranking government officials and their associates are bondholders,” said Moya-Ocampos of IHS, who noted it’s “not too common” for high-ranking officials to own their country’s debt.
—Reuters contributed to this report.